(End of the American Dream)—It appears that the outcome of this election is likely to completely shock a lot of the experts. I have spent quite a bit of time today going through the numbers on the University of Florida’s early voting tracker, and I have noticed some very intriguing trends. First of all, turnout is off the charts. In 2020, 49 million Americans voted prior to Election Day. So far in 2024, a whopping 24,981,629 Americans have already voted, and we still have almost two weeks to go until we reach November 5th. There is so much energy on both sides, and both sides fully expect to win. Once it is all over, the losing side is going to experience a flood of negative emotion.
Before I begin, I want to mention a few things. Not all states offer early voting, and the states that do offer early voting differ as to what types of data they make available. So the numbers that we have right now do not give us a full picture of what is going on.
Also, just because a voter identifies with a particular party, that does not mean that voter will vote a particular way. Some Democrats could be voting for Donald Trump, and some Republicans could be voting for Kamala Harris. But without a doubt, the numbers that we are getting at this stage do tell us a very interesting story.
In previous elections, Democrats have voted early at a much higher rate than Republicans have.
In 2024, that continues to be true…
- Democrat 5,355,274 42.8 %
- Republican 4,327,744 34.6 %
- None/Minor 2,839,445 22.7 %
But the big story is that Republicans have really narrowed the gap compared to the last presidential election.
Currently there is only an 8.2 percent gap between Democrats and Republicans, but in 2020 there was a 14.3 percent gap…
- Democrats 22,250,979 44.8
- Republicans 15,168,587 30.5
- Minor 337,192 0.7
- No Party Affiliation 11,912,722 24.0
The Trump campaign has really been encouraging people to go out and vote early, and it appears that it is working.
Another gap that we will want to watch closely is the gap between men and women. So far, women are voting early at a much higher rate than men are…
- Female 4,000,732 54.3 %
- Male 3,250,623 44.1 %
- Unknown 121,723 1.7 %
This is potentially a promising sign for Harris, because she has far more support among women than she does among men.
But when we start looking at specific swing states, there is a ton of bad news for the Harris campaign.
For example, Republicans have cast almost 12,000 more votes than Democrats have in Nevada so far…
- Democrat 119,798 36.0 %
- Republican 131,516 39.5 %
- None/Minor 81,354 24.5 %
As I noted yesterday, the Harris campaign is absolutely counting on Nevada, and so these numbers should be very troubling for them. In Arizona, Republicans have built up an even bigger lead…
- Democrat 250,467 36.3 %
- Republican 288,726 41.9 %
- None/Minor 150,157 21.8 %
If Harris wants to have any hope of winning Arizona, she has got to turn those numbers around.
Colorado also gives us data on party identification, and the numbers from that state are absolutely stunning…
- Democrat 196,014 31.6 %
- Republican 173,231 28.0 %
- None/Minor 250,158 40.4 %
Nobody expects Colorado to be competitive.
But Republicans are running very close to Democrats in the early voting numbers so far.
If Colorado were to slip away, that would be catastrophic for the Harris campaign.
One of the most closely watched swing states is North Carolina. Normally, Democrats would have a very large early voting lead at this stage, but instead it is a very close race…
- Democrat 588,925 34.5 %
- Republican 578,428 33.9 %
- None/Minor 538,333 31.6 %
In order for Harris to win North Carolina, she needs African-American voters to show up in huge numbers.
Unfortunately for Harris, at this point African-American turnout is way down all over the state…
The most striking impact is among Black voters. So far, there are more than 67,000 fewer African American voters than there were in 2020 at this point in the in-person voting period. That’s a huge deficit that Democrats should be scrambling to address. They need to be shifting money and people to connect with Black voters and get them to the polls.
The problem is widespread. In Durham County, there are 4,500 fewer Black voter this year than four ago. In Mecklenburg, the number is 5,000. In Wake, it’s a little more than 3,000. In Cumberland, the Black vote is down by 5,000. In Guilford, the number is more than 8,500.
The problem is apparent in rural counties, too. In Wilson County, there are more than 1,000 fewer Black voters so far than the same period in 2020. In Halifax County, Black vote is also down more than 1,000. Same in Nash County.
More than 20 percent of her African-American voters are missing.
They could potentially vote later in the process, but there is no guarantee that will happen.
In addition, survey after survey has shown that Trump is getting far more support among African-Americans than he did in 2020.
Many Democrats are extremely concerned about the state of the race, because Trump clearly has the momentum at this point. The following comes from the Wall Street Journal…
Kamala Harris calls herself the underdog against Donald Trump. Making that argument is an old ploy to motivate voters, but with two weeks until Election Day the vice president’s top advisers and allies are worrying it might be true.
Harris’s struggle to nail down support from key voting blocs in the Democratic coalition has left her team unsettled, according to interviews with aides and advisers. She enjoys strong support with women, but she has a clear problem with men, including both Black men and white working-class men. She also has failed to shore up support among Michigan’s Arab-Americans, who have been frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of the widening conflict in the Middle East.
It is likely that we could witness a scenario on the night of the election where the map looks really good for Trump, and if that is the case Trump may declare victory before the night is over.
Of course Harris insists that she is ready to fight back if Trump tries to do that…
Vice President Kamala Harris, her campaign team and some of Donald Trump’s own allies say they expect the former president to quickly declare victory on election night — even if the outcome is not yet settled in key swing states.
Between the time it takes to process mail ballots and deal with provisional ballots in some battleground states, votes will not be fully tabulated on election night. Projections of who won a close presidential race might not come for days, similar to the 2020 election.
It is hard to imagine a concession speech by Harris on the night of the election no matter how bad things look for her campaign.
Even if she is losing badly, her campaign will probably insist that it is just a “red mirage” and that things will turn in her favor once all of the early votes and absentee ballots are counted.
Ultimately, the outcome of the election could end up in the courts and drag out for weeks even if it is obvious that Trump has won.
And if Trump does eventually emerge victorious, it will likely result in widespread chaos in our streets.
Have you noticed that they have been calling Trump a “fascist” over and over again this week?
The stage is being set for massive civil unrest, and that is extremely unfortunate.
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
